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The latest Tweets from Merkel Blog (@merkel_blog). Ein Blog über Macht. Von @​_juliaschramm. Wir verwenden auf dieser Website notwendige Cookies. Durch Nutzung unserer Webseite stimmen Sie zu, dass Cookies gesetzt werden. Außerdem verwenden. Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hat sich in der Bundespressekonferenz den Fragen von Journalistinnen und Journalisten gestellt. Es ging um die Corona-.

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5 Jahre \ Das Kanzleramt vermochte auf eine abgeordnetenwatch. Man verurteile gemeinsam die Gewaltanwendung in dem Land und setze sich für einen Dialog zwischen Regierung, Opposition und Gesellschaft ein. Benachrichtige mich über nachfolgende Kommentare via E-Mail. Merkels langjähriger Verteidigungsminister war eng mit Augustus Intelligence verbunden, zunächst als Aktionär und später über zwei Gratis Puzzeln im Unternehmen. Kabinettsbeschluss Reisewarnung für Drittstaaten bis Merkel Blog

The ideal of an inflation-protected defined benefit plan was indeed wonderful, but the costs were prohibitive.

Few companies were willing to shoulder the costs of them, and what few were willing ran into the roadblock of the IRS telling them they could not put too much into their defined benefit plans — for the IRS feared it was a tax dodge.

The IRS wants taxes now. As it is today, most of us including me , are stuck in the box where we have to make our assets last over our retirements.

There are no guarantees. How do we make the assets stretch? Most people assume the government will inflate, and that seems to be an easy solution.

As such, they tend not to inflate aggressively. But as with most matters in economics, past is not prologue. Who can tell what the government might do in an entitlements crisis mixed with a weak dollar?

What happens when so much credit is extended that foreign creditors distrust the value of the dollar or euro?

First there is storage: t-bills and gold. Wait, why not buy gold miners? The problem with gold miners is depletion.

Has the price of gold risen? Yes, but so has the cost of mining gold. There are many people who have bitten the romantic lure to mine gold, and as such, typically gross margins are poor.

Buying gold miners has been a bad bet for a long time. So just buy a little gold instead, and not the miners. Short duration bonds can be useful if their yields are higher than expected inflation plus default losses.

Otherwise, bonds are usually not a good hedge for inflation. With stocks, for the market as a whole, rising inflation is a small net negative.

Businesses will raise their prices, but a higher cost of capital overall will make stocks lose ground to inflation in real terms.

Just be aware that when the cycle shifts to deflation, those stocks will underperform. Before I close, I have a few words regarding the unique ways that inflation affects seniors:.

Wages mostly adjust to inflation — if you have work, that is a source of support. Second, things that are necessary — food, energy and healthcare, have tended to inflate at a rate faster than other goods and services.

That might not be true of energy now, but it was true for a long time. My main bit of advice is to be conservative in your spending.

Making assets last for a long time, is difficult, but it becomes impossible when your asset levels get too low. With that, invest wisely. Personally, I would pursue a middle course that partially hedges inflation risk, because the cost of being wrong on either side is significant.

Photo credit: David Seibolid Oh dear, you lost your head! So we had a hard market day yesterday. The great thing about the USA is that no one is ever truly in charge.

Power is shared. I am not saying that it is time to buy, unless it is small trades. I bought 0. After buying as the market fell in March, I was selling off stocks in May.

Did I not believe the rally? Sure I did, but there are degrees of belief, and I kept selling bits as the market rose.

Now let me tell you about two former clients. One was retiring, and wanted to move his assets to a firm I had never heard of.

He notified me the second day after the bull market peak in February. I did not argue; I just liquidated the account for him. As the market fell after that, he told me to delay selling — the market would come back.

I told him he had already sold. Now, the new manager was incompetent in rolling over the assets. I was astounded how long it took, even with me helping them.

The insurance company knew how to roll assets. Your money dies there. My former client is ill-served both ways. Then there was the second client.

He seemed to be happy and was interested in good long-run returns. In my risk survey, he scored normally. But when the market fell hard in March, he panicked and wanted to liquidate.

But he asked my opinion on the matter. I told him that quick moves of the market tend to reverse, and that the securities that he held were well-capitalized, and even if the market fell further, they would not fall as much.

Then he told me that he never wanted the portfolio to fall below a certain level which we were at that point close to breaching.

Either change your goal, or change your asset allocation. For a day, he realized he should be willing to take more risk. Than the market fell hard again, and he told me to liquidate.

Choose an asset allocation that you can live with under all conditions, and stick with it. This is the same thing that I tell the risk-averse pastors that I serve on the denominational pension board.

And if you are not sure that you can live with it, move the risk level down another notch. A second lesson is be honest with yourself, and also with your advisor, about your risk preferences.

Most advisors that I know are happy to adjust the riskiness of client portfolios. There is no heroism in taking too much risk.

I personally could run at a higher level of risk, but I would rather not take the mental toll of doing so.

And when the market moves, I trade against it — but not aggressively. Yesterday was tough. Big deal.

Days like that will happen. As for my second client, he took more risk than he was comfortable with, and ended up leaving the game, which is the worst outcome under normal conditions.

Sun Tzu said the most important task of a general was to understand himself and his enemy. My second client did not understand his own desires, and he did not understand how volatile the market can be.

As such he lost out — as did the first client in other ways. This should be a short post. He is storing value until the time comes when he can buy something that he thinks offers a superb return over the long haul.

The ETFs that pursued these strategies were inventory financing charities in disguise. They still are, even though their strategies are more complex than they were.

Think for a moment. Why should you earn a yield-type return off of owning a commodity? Really, that should not exist unless there is a scarcity of speculators willing to let producers hedge their risk with them.

There is a speculative return, positive or negative, from holding a commodity, but in the present environment, where there is no lack of people willing to hold commodities, there is no yield-like return, unless it is negative.

As a result, commodities should be viewed as storage, not an investment. Do you think in the long run that gold will be more valuable than it is today?

It might be wise to store some away. That said, you have to be careful here. In inflation-adjusted terms, most commodities have gotten cheaper over time, with occasional violent rallies that convince people to speculate all too late.

Storage is not investing. Storage tucks something away, and it will not change, even if its price changes because of changes in the economy.

Investing is far less certain — you can lend to or buy equity in a venture which could produce astounding returns, or you could lose it all, or something in-between.

With investing, it is rare that you will end up with what you started with. This is not to say that storage is a bad thing — we exchange our savings in bank balances to store value in a different form.

A bank could go bust. If enough go bust at the same time, value could be lost if the government does not back up the FDIC. Holding T-bills preserves value to the degree that the government is willing to pay on its own debts in fiat currency, which is pretty likely.

Holding a commodity with a price you think will correlate strongly with the prices you will experience in retirement is not a bad idea.

That said, it is storage. It will not grow your purchasing power the way that investment will. As such, I encourage you to mostly invest, and store a little.

Storage is more certain, but has no return. Investing has returns, both positive and negative, but generally over time provides more value than storage.

PS — owning a home, except in a crowded area that is growing, is not an investment but is storage. You should not expect capital gains in real terms from owning a house.

That said, it will provide you with rent-free living for a long time once the mortgage is paid off. Please ignore the property taxes, insurance and maintenance costs.

I may occasionally write opinions that are controversial, but I try not be controversial as a rule. So, when I wrote my piece yesterday , I was not looking to make any huge statement regarding Berkshire Hathaway.

Of all investors alive today, he is the one who most deserves to be studied. Ben Graham had no better pupil. Same for Phil Fisher.

And as far as Henry Singleton goes, Buffett has outdone him. Really, I like it. And yes, I am a longtime fan of Buffett who might sell the remainder of my stake in BRK, but why should anyone care about that?

Yes, I sold half of my stake in BRK recently, but that only removed what I had added during the crisis. The amount I hold today is roughly the same as what I held on January 1st, I had a thesis that Buffett would take advantage of the crisis, and buy some amount of stock.

That was a major reason why I doubled my position; the secondary reason is that BRK is a safe asset. That Buffett did nothing surprised me, and I sold half for a moderate gain.

If Buffett has such a long time horizon, he missed some opportunities. I want people to read what I write, but I hate sensationalism.

Why else do I have relatively boring headlines for my posts? I am here to educate in a friendly way.

I am not here to be thrilling. Anyway, enough. I wish Buffett the best, and hope his plans work out. The challenge for him in the present environment stems from the same reason that the Fed replaced J.

Now the Fed is replacing Warren Buffett. And, for the cases where Buffett is buying healthy firms at a reasonable price, private equity takes his offer as a cue to outbid him… because Buffett never pays top dollar.

After all, Buffett has reinvented his strategy several times already. Time to reinvent yourself again, Warren. Has the present Buffett learned to adapt?

But when he pointed it out at his next dermatology appointment, his doctor removed the red bump and sent it to a lab for analysis. It was Merkel cell carcinoma MCC , she told him, a rare and dangerous form of skin cancer.

She explained that he would have to see a surgeon and have the tumor removed as soon as possible. Highly aggressive, and with a high risk of recurring and metastasizing, MCC kills about one in three patients.

Melanoma, another form of skin cancer that is much more widely recognized as dangerous, kills about one in nine patients.

Jepson did some research and found that his doctor was not exaggerating how serious the disease is. Jepson had surgery right away. His physician removed the tumor with large margins, meaning he removed a wider area of skin around the tumor than is required for less dangerous types of skin cancer.

The surgery left Jepson with a inch scar on the side of his face. Unfortunately, this would be just the beginning of his treatment. His cancer had already begun to spread.

After learning his cancer had progressed, Jepson faced some difficult thoughts about the future. If I die, how is my son is going to fend for himself?

I bought millions of dollars in life insurance. Twenty-five rounds of it, to be exact. Jepson went in for treatment every day for 22 business days, then had to stop for a two-week break after suffering burns on his neck.

After finishing his final three rounds of radiation, Jepson also had to have ear tubes inserted — an attempt to rectify the hearing loss he experienced as a side effect of the treatment.

I was affected at work and would just come home and sleep. Jepson would never want to repeat the experience, but his treatments eventually paid off.

A few weeks after his radiation was finished, Jepson, a Minneapolis native, traveled to Minnesota to see the Vikings play the Green Bay Packers.

Unfortunately, he had accidentally purchased phony tickets online and was denied entry to the stadium. Disappointed, he headed to the airport to fly back to Florida, when he received a call from his surgeon.

There are a large number of distressed debt investors out there, estimating what a reorganized Hertz will be worth. There is no preferred stock, and a minimal amount of second lien debt.

That means that the hard assets cars of Hertz are likely not available to unsecured claimants. With the senior unsecured trading at such a large discount to par value, it seems impossible that the current stockholders would get much if anything out of a reorganization.

Most of their assets are encumbered via ABS. The senior unsecured bondholders are the class of security holders that will receive partial payment, and as such, will likely be the controlling class of securities that will receive the equity in the new Hertz, while the old common stock is either cancelled, or receives some nominal allocation of securities in the new Hertz.

Thus I say to those who hold Hertz equity, sell your shares. Because of mindless speculation, the price is overly high. Take your opportunity, and sell to those who are less wise.

Now, some might ask… what are my motives in writing this? They are purely intellectual. It is really tough to short a stock to zero. So, no, I am not long or short Hertz.

Gun to the head, I would short it, rather than go long, but I would size any position to reflect the possibilities of a short squeeze. Though my adopted children were all black to some degree, I had not heard of Juneteenth until yesterday.

Anyway, that made me think of doing a Twitter poll to see what holiday people would be willing to do away with.

That meant doing ten little polls with randomized competition among holidays. It was a small challenge to create randomized polls that did not have repeats in the choices for any particular poll, and where none of the ten polls were identical to each other.

All 10 polls are out. I would have done it as one poll, but twitter only allows for four choices, and I wanted to have none of the above as a choice in each poll, so it meant having ten polls with 3 randomized choices each, with no duplicates in choices or polls.

Please vote. Note: if you play along with me on these polls, there will be a series of them where each of the ten federal holidays gets equal representation.

I'm a quant with expertise in simulation analysis. Part of this is to unscientifically determine the least popular holiday.

As you can see, one goal of the polling is to unscientifically determine the least popular holiday.

There were a few more goals. I thought it would be possible that some might think that Juneteenth and the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.

Would some people suggest a trade of one for the other? Are people happy with the current situation? That would indirectly answer the question of how much sympathy there is for Juneteenth as a Federal Holiday.

Which of the following Federal Holidays would you give up in order to make Juneteenth a Federal Holiday? Choices chosen randomly.

I think highly of my readers. I particularly appreciate the way that most of you who choose to comment at my blog are measured in your comments.

So, if you have a few minutes of time, go ahead and answer the polling questions. Graphic Credit: Aleph Blog, natch… same for the rest of the graphs here.

Data is from the Federal Reserve and Jeremy Siegel. As I said last time, a lot can happen in 3 months. At the end of March , a rally was starting that would become a new bull market.

At that time, the market was poised to deliver a return over the next 10 years of 6. As I write this evening, after the rally the likely return over the next ten years is 4.

In general, this model fits the data well, but who can tell for the future? This is likely the best estimate over a ten-year horizon.

So, do you go for stocks here with a likely return of 4. Let me peel this back a bit for a moment, as one who once managed a large portfolio of bonds.

Why not always buy the highest yielding bonds? The bond manager that buys without question the higher yielding names presumes stability in the financial markets, and likely the economy as well.

Defaults can affect the realized yield a lot. You might be getting more yield today, but will you be able to realize those yields?

In addition to losses from defaults, many managers lose value during times of credit stress because they are forced to sell marginal bonds that they are no longer sure will survive at distressed prices.

But do you have the fortitude, balance sheet, and time horizon to realize it? More say they have it than actually do have it.

The account application form at my firm stresses the risks of investing, and talks about stock investors needing a long time horizon.

I still get people who panic. There might be such a fall. Who cares — that is why I run a year model — to take the emotion out of this.

If you are afraid of the market now, you should do one of three things:. The dollar may be worth less when it is done, but I think it is likely that you will have more ten years from now by investing in stocks and risky assets like stocks, than to invest in safe assets.

When the Fed shifts, things will be different. They tried and the market slapped them. They try to not let it leak into the real economy, so there is little inflation for now.

But there is no free lunch. Something will come to discipline the Fed, whether it is inflation, a currency crisis — who knows?

So what do I do? I own assets that will survive bad scenarios, I raise a little cash, but I am largely invested in stocks. Photo Credit: frankieleon Even with low inflation, money shrinks.

Wages move with inflation, few assets do. The ideal of an inflation-protected defined benefit plan was indeed wonderful, but the costs were prohibitive.

Few companies were willing to shoulder the costs of them, and what few were willing ran into the roadblock of the IRS telling them they could not put too much into their defined benefit plans — for the IRS feared it was a tax dodge.

The IRS wants taxes now. As it is today, most of us including me , are stuck in the box where we have to make our assets last over our retirements.

There are no guarantees. How do we make the assets stretch? Most people assume the government will inflate, and that seems to be an easy solution.

As such, they tend not to inflate aggressively. But as with most matters in economics, past is not prologue. Who can tell what the government might do in an entitlements crisis mixed with a weak dollar?

What happens when so much credit is extended that foreign creditors distrust the value of the dollar or euro? First there is storage: t-bills and gold.

Wait, why not buy gold miners? The problem with gold miners is depletion. Has the price of gold risen? Yes, but so has the cost of mining gold.

There are many people who have bitten the romantic lure to mine gold, and as such, typically gross margins are poor.

Buying gold miners has been a bad bet for a long time. So just buy a little gold instead, and not the miners. Short duration bonds can be useful if their yields are higher than expected inflation plus default losses.

Otherwise, bonds are usually not a good hedge for inflation. With stocks, for the market as a whole, rising inflation is a small net negative. Businesses will raise their prices, but a higher cost of capital overall will make stocks lose ground to inflation in real terms.

Just be aware that when the cycle shifts to deflation, those stocks will underperform. Before I close, I have a few words regarding the unique ways that inflation affects seniors:.

Wages mostly adjust to inflation — if you have work, that is a source of support. Second, things that are necessary — food, energy and healthcare, have tended to inflate at a rate faster than other goods and services.

That might not be true of energy now, but it was true for a long time. My main bit of advice is to be conservative in your spending.

Making assets last for a long time, is difficult, but it becomes impossible when your asset levels get too low. With that, invest wisely.

Personally, I would pursue a middle course that partially hedges inflation risk, because the cost of being wrong on either side is significant.

Photo credit: David Seibolid Oh dear, you lost your head! So we had a hard market day yesterday. The great thing about the USA is that no one is ever truly in charge.

Power is shared. I am not saying that it is time to buy, unless it is small trades. I bought 0. After buying as the market fell in March, I was selling off stocks in May.

Did I not believe the rally? Sure I did, but there are degrees of belief, and I kept selling bits as the market rose.

Now let me tell you about two former clients. One was retiring, and wanted to move his assets to a firm I had never heard of. He notified me the second day after the bull market peak in February.

I did not argue; I just liquidated the account for him. As the market fell after that, he told me to delay selling — the market would come back. I told him he had already sold.

Now, the new manager was incompetent in rolling over the assets. I was astounded how long it took, even with me helping them.

The insurance company knew how to roll assets. Your money dies there. My former client is ill-served both ways. Then there was the second client.

He seemed to be happy and was interested in good long-run returns. In my risk survey, he scored normally. But when the market fell hard in March, he panicked and wanted to liquidate.

But he asked my opinion on the matter. I told him that quick moves of the market tend to reverse, and that the securities that he held were well-capitalized, and even if the market fell further, they would not fall as much.

Then he told me that he never wanted the portfolio to fall below a certain level which we were at that point close to breaching. Either change your goal, or change your asset allocation.

For a day, he realized he should be willing to take more risk. Than the market fell hard again, and he told me to liquidate.

Choose an asset allocation that you can live with under all conditions, and stick with it. This is the same thing that I tell the risk-averse pastors that I serve on the denominational pension board.

And if you are not sure that you can live with it, move the risk level down another notch. A second lesson is be honest with yourself, and also with your advisor, about your risk preferences.

Most advisors that I know are happy to adjust the riskiness of client portfolios. Auf ein neues! Angela Merkel in den Sozialen Medien intensiv zu verfolgen ist meist witzig, manchmal voll wahnsinnig und vor allem umfangreich.

Ein paar Highlights gibt es wieder in der Netzlese. Die Raute ist doch ein Zeichen! Auf einer obskuren Seite wird A? Die Debatte um die Nachfolge von Angela Merkel hat bisher noch nicht so richtig begonnen.

Im Hintergrund tuscheln die Leute, im Vordergrund auch. Aber sie tuscheln eben nur. Macht sie es nochmal? Will sie? Kann sie? Wird es Ursula von der Leyen?

Wer sonst? Die GerA? Ist sie nun ganz […]. Putin und Merkel. Eine ewige Geschichte. Die Lieblinge der internationalen Politik.

So wird es gerne dargestellt. Sie, die unterkA? AYen, sie werden von Femen getrollt und umarmen einander. Und Merkel ist genervt. Oder sie hat diesen Blick der strengen Lehrerin, […].

Angela Merkel im Interview mit Anne Will. Die Tatsache, dass Schweigen eine Form der Kommunikation ist und dass man, wenn man phantasievoll mit Schweigen umgeht, viel hineininterpretieren kann.

Der Minister dankte den Rettungskräften für ihren Einsatz und sicherte Unterstützung zu. Kanzlerin Merkel wies auf die "verheerenden Folgen für hunderttausende. Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hat sich in der Bundespressekonferenz den Fragen von Journalistinnen und Journalisten gestellt. Es ging um die Corona-. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Angela Merkel (Foto: picture alliance / dpa | Merkels langjähriger Verteidigungsminister war eng mit Augustus. Von Alten Hasen und ersten Böcken. Autor: FX Datum: Mehr erfahren. Qualität – Stoffe und Technologien. Autor: FX Datum: Angela Merkel hat sich in ihrer Regierungszeit mit viel Energie der deutschen Gründerszene gewidmet. Kann sie als "Startup-Kanzlerin" bezeichnet werden? Dennoch setzte sie Akzente: Im Rahmen der Digitalisierung förderte sie mit dem Gesetz zum Breitbandausbau die deutschen Startups, die immer häufiger 15 Euro Pro Umfrage schnellen Internetverbindungen abhängig sind. Bund und Länder hätten Stake7com Kampf gegen die Corona-Pandemie immer als Gesamtherausforderung verstanden, und das habe sich bewährt, erklärte Bundeskanzlerin Merkel nach einer Videoschaltkonferenz mit den Regierungschefinnen und -chefs Kyodai Länder. Aus seiner Merkel Blog kann man nachlesen, wieviele Fragen er an die Bundesregierung hierzu gerichtet hat, Csgo Casino Net wie diese beantwortet wurden. Video ansehen. Mit diesen Cookies können wir Besuche zählen. Die Tatsache, dass Schweigen eine Form der Kommunikation ist und dass man, wenn man phantasievoll mit Schweigen umgeht, viel hineininterpretieren kann. Ich will aber die Gelegenheit nutzen ein paar […]. Kanzlerin Merkel trifft Präsident Macron "Europa ist nur dann stark, Beste Spieleseiten Im Internet es mit einer Stimme spricht". Es ist unbestritten die […]. Seite drucken. Erfahre mehr darüber, wie deine Kommentardaten verarbeitet werden. Barriere melden. Peter Boettel am Gymnich-Treffen in Berlin Gemeinsam stark. Angela Merkel ist auch die Kanzlerin des digitalen Wandels. Volkszählung Zensus wird verschoben. Antisemitismusbericht im Kabinett. Wir alle können etwas dagegen tun. Einige Cookies sind notwendig, um Ihnen die grundlegenden Funktionen dieser Webseite bereitzustellen Gebrauchte Spiele können daher nicht deaktiviert werden. Diesen Blogartikel teilen teilen tweet WhatsApp e-mail. Berlin, Bisher war lediglich bekannt, dass Guttenberg sich am 3.

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Einige Cookies sind notwendig, um Ihnen die grundlegenden Funktionen Euroleague Liveticker Webseite bereitzustellen und können daher nicht deaktiviert werden. Das Tool verwendet Cookies. Interne Dokumente. Um auf die Notwendigkeit Sim Slots App verpflichtendes Lobbyregister hinzuweisen, hat abgeordnetenwatch. Nun steht der Verdacht im Raum, das Kanzleramt habe die brisante Unterhaltung verheimlicht — und es taucht eine rätselhafte Querverbindung zum Wirecard-Skandal auf. Neuen Kommentar hinzufügen You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Rundgang durchs Kanzleramt dummy Foto: dummy

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Sommer-Pressekonferenz von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel Of all investors alive today, he is the Produkttester Geld Verdienen who most deserves to be studied. I've had enough. When he Schlechter Verlierer, more or less, that they had things well in hand back there and we'd be called in at some point later, I felt something in me that Express Slot once every few years. Murke ist Kulturredakteur beim Radio, und Dortmund Home Games […]. Part of this is to unscientifically determine the least popular holiday. Merkel Blog